Original published illustration: ๐Ÿ“Š The Economics of Chokepoints: Updating My Investment Thesis (YTD +29.32%)
Original publication image ยท eToro
๐Ÿ“Š ๐—ง๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—˜๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—ป๐—ผ๐—บ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐˜€ ๐—ผ๐—ณ ๐—–๐—ต๐—ผ๐—ธ๐—ฒ๐—ฝ๐—ผ๐—ถ๐—ป๐˜๐˜€: ๐—จ๐—ฝ๐—ฑ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐— ๐˜† ๐—œ๐—ป๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ๐˜€๐˜๐—บ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜ ๐—ง๐—ต๐—ฒ๐˜€๐—ถ๐˜€ (๐—ฌ๐—ง๐—— +๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿต.๐Ÿฏ๐Ÿฎ%) Over the past year, my core philosophy was built around the "Architects of the Digital Future"โ€”the companies laying the groundwork for the next industrial revolution. However, as capital expenditure in artificial intelligence, cloud, and global infrastructure scales to multi-trillion-dollar levels, simply being a "builder" is no longer sufficient. You must own the toll booth. Today, I am formally updating my investment thesis. We have transitioned from identifying broad digital architects to an aggressive, concentrated focus on ๐—ฆ๐˜๐—ฟ๐˜‚๐—ฐ๐˜๐˜‚๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐—น ๐— ๐—ผ๐—ป๐—ผ๐—ฝ๐—ผ๐—น๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐˜€ ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฑ ๐—–๐—ต๐—ผ๐—ธ๐—ฒ๐—ฝ๐—ผ๐—ถ๐—ป๐˜ ๐—”๐˜€๐˜€๐—ฒ๐˜๐˜€. Many market participants are currently confused by the extreme concentration of market returns. They ask if this is a bubble. It is not. It is a fundamental realignment of global economics. Broad market diversificationโ€”such as blindly buying the $SPX500โ€”is increasingly a defensive strategy for those unable to model supply chain realities. When you own an index today, you are largely buying the hundreds of companies whose margins are being compressed to pay the capital expenditures demanded by the top 10. My strategy is to bypass the customers and directly own the monopolies dictating the terms. Here is the updated framework governing my capital allocation: ๐Ÿญ. ๐—ง๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ฆ๐—ถ๐—น๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—ป & ๐—–๐—ผ๐—บ๐—ฝ๐˜‚๐˜๐—ฒ ๐—–๐—ต๐—ผ๐—ธ๐—ฒ๐—ฝ๐—ผ๐—ถ๐—ป๐˜๐˜€ (๐—ง๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—–๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ) We do not guess which AI software application will win. We own the mathematical certainty of the hardware required to train and run them. This is the physical chokepoint of global innovation. Our portfolio heavily concentrates on the entities that possess absolute pricing power across the semiconductor supply chain: โ€ข Fabrication & Lithography: $TSM, $ASML โ€ข Compute & GPU dominance: $NVDA, $AMD โ€ข The Memory Oligopoly (Solving the GPU bottleneck): $MU, $SNDK โ€ข Networking & Data Transfer: $AVGO, $MRVL Without these specific entities, the global digital economy halts. ๐Ÿฎ. ๐—™๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—ป๐—ฑ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป๐—ฎ๐—น ๐—œ๐—ป๐—ณ๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐˜€๐˜๐—ฟ๐˜‚๐—ฐ๐˜๐˜‚๐—ฟ๐—ฒ (๐—ง๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐˜€๐˜๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฎ๐—น & ๐—ข๐—ฟ๐—ฏ๐—ถ๐˜๐—ฎ๐—น) Scale now dictates survival. We allocate capital to companies operating as fundamental infrastructure with insurmountable capital barriers to entry. This spans the hyper-scale terrestrial cloud architectures of $MSFT, $AMZN, and $GOOGL, all the way to the definitive orbital infrastructure and launch monopoly of $SPCX. These are not speculative ventures; they are closed-loop economic systems. ๐Ÿฏ. ๐—˜๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐˜€๐˜†๐˜€๐˜๐—ฒ๐—บ ๐——๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐˜๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐˜€ & ๐—ก๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐— ๐—ผ๐—ป๐—ผ๐—ฝ๐—ผ๐—น๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐˜€ Beyond physical infrastructure, we target unbreachable digital moats. This includes companies that own the entire ecosystem of global attention and content distribution ($META, $NFLX), the definitive platforms securing these networks ($PANW), and essential data analytics architectures ($DDOG). ๐Ÿฐ. ๐—”๐˜€๐˜†๐—บ๐—บ๐—ฒ๐˜๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ฎ๐—น ๐—–๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฎ๐—น๐˜†๐˜€๐˜๐˜€ A strictly controlled percentage of the portfolio is reserved for event-driven monopolies with highly predictable, high-alpha catalystsโ€”such as $TTWO, leveraging decade-long IP development cycles that function as cultural monopolies. ๐—ง๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐— ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ฎ๐—น ๐—ฃ๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐—ผ๐—ณ This framework is not theoretical. It is a rigorous, data-driven approach designed to decouple from broad market beta, and the results reflect this discipline. As of this update: โ€ข $SPX500 YTD: +10.32% โ€ข $NSDQ100 YTD: +20.99% โ€ข ๐—ข๐˜‚๐—ฟ ๐—ฃ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐˜๐—ณ๐—ผ๐—น๐—ถ๐—ผ ๐—ฌ๐—ง๐——: +๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿต.๐Ÿฏ๐Ÿฎ% We do not chase trends. We do not over-diversify to protect against volatility at the cost of alpha. We demand mathematical certainty in supply chain dominance and aggressively concentrate capital in the entities building the physical and digital bottlenecks of the next decade. Investors seeking exposure to a highly analytical, structurally dominant technology portfolio are invited to review my complete holdings, historical track record, and underlying data directly on my profile.