Razvan Ceapa
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Q3 2026 Portfolio Performance & Q4 Strategic Rotation

Blogger edition published 10 October 2026 · Source updated 10 October 2026. Original publication dates are preserved; the website import date is not used.

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Historical article. Figures, holdings and views reflect the original publication, not current conditions. Claims are preserved, not independently revalidated. Capital at risk.

Original published article illustration

 In Q3 2026, our concentrated equity portfolio delivered a +1.25% net return, absorbing mid-quarter macroeconomic volatility before executing an +11.71% alpha sprint in September.

Quarterly reporting should evaluate structural thesis execution rather than short-term price movements. Across broader time horizons, our performance spread remains exceptionally wide:

  • 2026 Year-to-Date: +28.07% (vs. S&P 500 +12.89% and Nasdaq 100 +22.27%)

  • Since January 2024: +126.48% (vs. S&P 500 +59.53% and Nasdaq 100 +79.77%)

Anatomy of Q3: Drawdowns as a Statistical Property July and August subjected technology equities to sharp drawdowns. As bond yields crossed 5.0%, market participants rotated into defensive sectors. Our portfolio absorbed a peak drawdown of approximately -17%. Institutional asset managers frequently manage headline volatility by purchasing low-beta assets or raising cash. Smoothing intra-quarter variance by diluting capital impairs compounding returns. Because our holdings are governed by physical bottlenecks rather than consumer discretionary cycles, we maintained 99.98% capital deployment throughout the decline, fully capturing the violent mean-reversion in September.

Q3 End-of-Quarter Allocation

At the close of September, our top four positions represented 45.39% of our deployed assets, anchoring our thesis in hardware compute:

  • ASML: 12.75%

  • NVIDIA: 12.36%

  • AMD: 11.34%

  • Micron: 8.94%

Q4 Strategic Rotation Entering October, we executed a ~10% portfolio rotation. We liquidated Datadog to eliminate exposure to multiple contraction risks in a high-yield environment, and we exited SanDisk to control our aggregate memory concentration.

This capital was reallocated to expand our chokepoint thesis:

  1. Enterprise Data Ontology: We initiated Palantir (PLTR). Hardware compute is ineffective without structured data. Palantir operates as the definitive toll booth for institutional AI deployment.

  2. Biological Compute: We initiated Moderna (MRNA). We view this as an investment in a programmable biological platform—an mRNA chokepoint for next-generation therapeutics.

We enter the fourth quarter positioned aggressively in the foundational monopolies of both digital and biological infrastructure.

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eToro version · 9 October 2026

This published adaptation is preserved in full alongside the Blogger article.

Original eToro publication →

𝗤𝟯 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲 𝗣𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗼 𝗣𝗲𝗿𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 & 𝗤𝟰 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗰 𝗥𝗼𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 We present our provisional performance report for the third quarter of 2026, alongside our initial capital reallocations for Q4. Our mandate remains to generate absolute alpha by concentrating capital in the physical monopolies and structural chokepoints of the digital economy. 𝗘𝘅𝗲𝗰𝘂𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗣𝗲𝗿𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗦𝘂𝗺𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘆 • Q3 2026 Portfolio Return: +1.25% • S&P 500 Q3 Return: +2.55% • September Alpha Rebound: +11.71% • Year-to-Date 2026 Return: +28.07% (vs. $SPX500 +12.89%) • Return vs January 2024: +126.48% 𝗔𝗻𝗮𝘁𝗼𝗺𝘆 𝗼𝗳 𝗤𝟯: 𝗗𝗿𝗮𝘄𝗱𝗼𝘄𝗻𝘀 𝗮𝘀 𝗮 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗲𝗿𝘁𝘆 The third quarter presented significant intra-period volatility. In July and early August, mounting macro rate pressure triggered an equity correction. Our portfolio experienced a maximum draw of approximately -17%. Because we held our positions through the liquidity squeeze rather than diluting into cash, our portfolio fully captured the violent mean-reversion in September, gaining +11.71% in 30 days and generating a +1,518 bps YTD alpha spread over the broader market. 𝗤𝟯 𝗘𝗻𝗱-𝗼𝗳-𝗤𝘂𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗔𝗹𝗹𝗼𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 At the close of Q3, our top four holdings represented 45.39% of total capital, anchoring our thesis in hardware compute: • ASML (12.75%) • NVIDIA (12.36%) • AMD (11.34%) • Micron (8.94%) The remaining capital provided exposure to foundational cloud platforms (Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft), interconnects (Broadcom, Marvell), and enterprise security. 𝗤𝟰 𝗢𝘂𝘁𝗹𝗼𝗼𝗸 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗰 𝗥𝗼𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 While our core silicon allocations—specifically $ASML and $NVDA—remain untouched, we executed a ~10% portfolio rotation entering October to manage valuation risk and expand our chokepoint thesis. We exited Datadog to avoid asymmetric downside risk tied to its P/E multiple and reduced memory exposure by selling SanDisk. This capital was redeployed to secure foundational operating platforms: • $PLTR: Securing the structural monopoly in enterprise and governmental data ontology. • $MRNA: Expanding our thesis into biological compute, treating mRNA as a programmable architectural chokepoint for next-generation therapeutics. We enter Q4 fully deployed, prioritizing mathematical discipline and structural monopolies.
Copy Trading is not investment advice | Capital at risk | Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclosures.